Clayton Kershaw is probably going one of many best pitcher of the twenty first century. This a lot isn’t actually in dispute. A occupation 2.48 ERA and a pair of.82 FIP over 16 years is unimpeachable. There’s three Cy Youngs to affiliate with it, and an MVP in 2014 when he had a 1.77 ERA and a 0.857 WHIP, which is earlier silly. He most definitely ought to have one or two extra Cy Youngs, had the voters not gotten fascinated by the very thought of giving one to a knuckleball pitcher (R.A. Dickey on the east coast).
And Kershaw has been able to reinvent himself a pair occasions, first arriving with a piledriver fastball and a magic curveball, and ultimately shaping that curve into an unhittable slider and dealing spherical his diminishing velocity. Nowadays at 35 he’s dependent upon location and guile, although the walks have ballooned.
Maybe he ought to have been born about 20 years earlier.
Had Kershaw pitched by the restricted playoff system, with solely division winners and LCSs and World Assortment to emphasize about, what he did all through the postseason might very properly be one issue of a footnote. Had he pitched ahead of the Dodgers turned a monopoly of the NL West, he most definitely wouldn’t have that many postseason begins to even be aware of.
Nonetheless he didn’t, he wasn’t, and he’s correct proper right here now. And Kershaw getting paddled spherical all through the postseason is, sadly, going to be merely as prevalent of a picture of his occupation as all these widespread season begins when no individual would possibly contact him.
Kershaw gave up 5 runs closing evening ahead of he acquired an out in opposition to Arizona. He gave up six in full ahead of being eradicated with just one/twenty seventh of the outs required on the board. It areas however one other stellar Dodgers season up in opposition to it, as they’ll must go searching two wins in three begins from Arizona’s prime two starters of Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly (who acquired the win closing evening). And the Dodgers don’t even have any trusted starters behind Kershaw. They’ll be making it up as they affiliate with Bobby Miller, Ryan Pepiot, and Lance Lynn most definitely solely going as rapidly as by means of a lineup after which a military of relievers. Most likely Kershaw did them a favor in getting overwhelmed so badly that they didn’t actually should go to any of their prime relievers, who’ll get a bonus day of leisure at present.
It’s not that there haven’t been good Kershaw begins in October. There’s been numerous them. 10, the fact is, of begins the place he went increased than six inning and gave up lower than three runs, going earlier the definition of a high quality begin.
Nonetheless he’s furthermore been shelled equally. Eight begins the place he’s given up 5 runs or extra (although one was that notorious Recreation 5 in Houston when the Astros, by some miracle, definitely not swung and missed at any of his breaking pitches). Constructive, there’s been his heavy utilization by Dave Roberts, occurring quick leisure or popping out of the pen or normally each. Nonetheless the runs given up are the runs given up by now.
Kershaw is a sufferer of how baseball is seen now as appropriately. With the Dodgers turning the widespread season into one issue of a procession, and the expanded playoffs making it simpler to take movement, the postseason is weighted extra. Nothing actually factors till October, a minimum of for groups just like the Dodgers or Astros or Atlanta now. That’s how MLB needs it. It’s the NBA-ification of the league, irrespective of being a very utterly completely totally different sport.
Kershaw will at all times run up in opposition to the picture of Justin Verlander, who’s his solely rivals of pitcher of this century. We’ve acquired photographs of Verlander worthwhile assortment for the Tigers on his personal (normally in opposition to the A’s). He has two rings from widespread World Assortment, not the one-in-a-can that was 2020. Verlander’s numbers aren’t actually that a lot increased all through the postseason. He’s acquired a 5.64 ERA in 9 World Assortment begins. Kershaw’s is 4.46. Nonetheless Verlander has been good, for mainly basically probably the most half, all through the Division Assortment and the ALCS (2.86 and three.01 ERA).
What’s unusual about Kershaw’s playoff foibles is the peripheral numbers aren’t all that completely completely totally different. He strikes out 27.6 % of the hitters all through the widespread season, and 27 % all through the postseason. 6.3 and 6.5 % are his stroll prices. WHIP is 1.00 all through the widespread season, and 1.11 all through the postseason.
What modifications is how normally the runners he lets on rating. He leaves 79.6 % of them on base all through the widespread season. That plummets to 66.3 in October. He’ll get eaten by sequencing, and sequencing in opposition to among the many finest hitters locked in to their highest diploma.
Nonetheless these numbers obtained’t erase the blemish. If the Dodgers exit at this stage to a fairly middling Diamondbacks group, and that’s Kershaw’s closing season, and the Dodgers solely have that one half- or quarter-World Assortment win for his or her decade of inserting tire tracks on the NL West and the Nationwide League as an entire, the lasting picture could also be all of the occasions Kershaw appeared behind him all through the playoffs to see a baseball touchdown someplace the place a teammate wasn’t. There are normally not any caveats, or buts, or exceptions anymore.
Observe Sam on Twitter @Felsgate and on Bluesky @felsgate.bsky.social
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